The Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Forecast for 2025 Was Just Updated, and It Comes With Bad News and Worse News for Retirees

Social Security payments get an annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to protect the buying power of benefits from inflation. COLAs depend on how the CPI-W (a subset of the Consumer Price Index) changes in the third quarter, meaning the three-month period running from July through September. For example, the CPI-W rose 3.2% in the third quarter of 2023, which led to a 3.2% COLA for Social Security benefits in 2024. The Social Security Administration cannot calculate the official COLA for 2025 …