How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works - ABC News

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model. For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately end up with a set of several thousand potential outcomes for the election. 1. Calculate polling averages Aside from two major factors (and a few minor ones), the …